Market Timing and Market Forecasting

A few decades ago, it was widely believed that the most effective way to analyze the markets for trade was to determine the fundamentals, such as the number of bushels in storage, the current demand figures, the expected harvest yield, etc. Many assumed that Technical Analysis was not useful. Reasons given were that price action is random, or that it ignores the fundamental factors of the underlying asset. The facts are quite the contrary.Many have come to learn that the old ‘buy and hold’ strategy can be a costly one. Stories abound of those who have found the value of their portfolio has only broken even (or lost value) after holding for several years. The financial crisis of 2008 highlights one of several historical periods where investors have lost millions. While it is always a good idea to know a company’s financial health as well as their future potential in sales/profits, what may be a healthy financial statement and outlook today can look a lot different tomorrow.Technical analysis focuses on price movement, anticipating price direction based on its ebbs and flows (ie. swings, cycles, etc.). Fundamental factors of any asset is built into price action, as the market discounts everything. In addition, history tends to repeat itself and this repetitive nature of price action can be anticipated and taken advantage of.Many technicians rely on various indicators that help expose some aspect of historical price data for the use of timing. Where one indicator might highlight some underlying cycle pattern that could help anticipate the next trend change period, another indicator might highlight a markets overbought or oversold condition, all relative to past price action.The technical analyst relies heavily on price charts. Certain patterns often repeat giving the technician a heads-up to a potential price break. Such patterns are given names, such as the ‘Head-and-sholders’ pattern, the ‘wedge’ or ‘flag’ formation, etc. All of these technical approaches are useful to some degree.Precise market timing is crucial in today’s volatile markets. Without greater precision in timing, the trader is exposed to a higher degree of risk and can leave more profit on the table.Let me illustrate this.For the sake of discussion, suppose that the price range of each trading day is 50 points. If your allowable risk exposure (how far you will allow the market to move against your position) is 50 points, you must enter the market on the exact day you expect the move to start in your favor to avoid being stopped out with a loss. If your allowable risk exposure is 100 points, you must be accurate in your timing within +/- one day to avoid getting stopped out with a loss. This highlights the importance of precision market timing.Now in the real world, each day the price range varies from the next. Depending on how effective your market timing approach happens to be, you may be able to risk less than the average range in points. The less precise your market timing approach happens to be, the more you should initially risk on the trade.While market timing itself can be loosely done using standard technical indicators, trend lines and moving averages, precision market timing is achievable with good market forecasting methods. Market forecasting for market timing purposes is extremely effective because, unlike most technical indicators that are ‘leading’ or ‘lagging’ in nature, a good market forecasting method can forecast a market turn to an exact day of a trend change. Giving any market forecasting method a small deviation allowance of +/- one day can give any trader an incredible edge in predicting market turns for the purpose of precision market timing and trading.Some traders are historical legends having used market forecasting methods for precision market timing purposes. Who has not heard of William Delbert Gann (better known as WD Gann)? This financial trader is famous for developing several technical approaches, such as the use of Gann angles or the trend indicator. His forecasting methods included the use of the Square of Nine, cycle analysis and market geometry. By using ‘market forecasting’ tools such as these and others, he is famously reported to have many times turned a small amount of money into a large amount rather quickly.So there are two main points that I hope you have garnered by reading this article. Point #1 is that in order to better manage your risk exposure and maximize your profit potential, the more precise you need to be with your market timing approach. Point #2 is that the most precise way to time the markets is to take advantage of market forecasting techniques, where often you can time your trades to the exact day of a new move.There are many market forecasting secrets, methods and techniques that you can learn right now to improve your market timing. Some are good, some not so good. I have spent over three decades learning, testing and discovering market forecasting approaches. When I started, there was not much available as there are today. So it has definitely seen some growth over the years and therefore you should have no problem finding the approaches that will fit your style of trading and investing.

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5 Benefits of Working From Home and Having a Home Based Business

The trend to home based businesses is really exploding. And, with good reason. The flexibility and profitability of working from home is tremendous. Besides for the fact that you can get up when you want and wear what you want, there are many other advantages to working from home and having a home based business.Benefit #1: Increased ProductivityWorking from home allows you to have more time. More time for work, or hobbies, or your family. It eliminates the commute to work. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the national average drive-time is 24.3 minutes. Americans spend over 100 hours a year commuting. Working from home not only eliminates the time spent commuting, it also eliminates time in the office spent socializing or leaving to get lunch. This time gained results in more productive hours and few hours spent “working.” Working from home also gives you the freedom to take a break to exercise or do something around the house. You’re home when packages arrive to sign for them. You’re home when the repair man comes and will only give you a four hour window. You are also more available to clients who need to reach you in the evening and on the weekends with a home based business. And, best of all, you’re home for your kids and pets when they need you. According to USA Today, people who work from form report having fewer sick days, improved morale, and improved productivity.Benefit #2: Tax SavingsWorking from home means a home office. A home office means deductible business related expenses such as Internet, phone, office space, subscriptions, and insurance. The IRS allows you to deduct a percent of your mortgage or rent payment, depreciation, property taxes, insurance, and utilities. The percent you may deduct is calculated by the number of rooms or square foot of your home you use for your business. For example, if you use one room of a four bedroom house for your home based business, you can deduct 25% of the homes’ operating expenses. However, this space must be designated specifically for your business on an on-going basis. According to the IRS, in order to deduct something as a business expense the “business expense must be ordinary in your business and necessary for operation.” Ordinary just means an expense that is accepted and common in your business. Necessary means those that are helpful and appropriate to maintain your business. The IRS requires you to separate your personal and business expenses and then only the business expenses can be deducted.Benefit #3: Flexible Hours Who wants a strict 9-5 job? It’s wonderful waking up and starting your day on your own schedule. Time to read the paper, get the kids to school, exercise all before you begin work. You have the flexibility to switch gears when you like. If you can only get a mid day doctor or hair appointment, that’s just fine with a home based business. It provides the flexibility to make it to your childrens’ school events, stay home with a sick child, or work late after the kids are in bed.Benefit #4: More Family TimeOne of the most fulfilling benefits of working from home and having a home based business is the ability to gain control over your life. Parents who work from home report a much higher level of family time and a much lower level of stress. If you chose to quit at 3:00 when the kids come home and work at night after they are in bed, that is now a choice of your own accord. Home based businesses allow for balance and the freedom to take the day off to golf or spend it with your kids without having to check in with someone.Benefit #5: More Profitability You will save money on rent, meals out, gas to commute, and the cost of work clothes. More importantly, instead of having a boss tell you when you have to work, when you can take vacation, when you’ll get a raise or a promotion, you make those decisions yourself. Your advancement and income is directly related to your own productivity. As a result, you’ll likely want to work harder and smarter since you reap the benefits directly.Home based businesses are at the forefront of the biggest business movement right now. Technology is largely responsible for this shift in business. We each have the opportunity, if we chose to seize it, to work from home and have the freedom we all dream of.

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Here’s Why You Need to Charge Your Electric Vehicle At Home

It is no wonder BMW is at the forefront in making both stylish and functional vehicles that never compromise safety. Charging your electric vehicle with a home charging station has more benefits compared to public charging stations. With BMW’s electric model ranges, you will experience an entirely new driving experience. No feeling is better than gliding silently through urban and rural traffics. All of this is free of fumes and harmful emissions that impact the planet. Going electric with BMW is one of the best things you can do for you.

While BMW iX3 Charging Station is available in many places and shopping malls in Australia, it is a good idea to invest in home BMW charger as it offers a plethora of benefits. In fact, charging your electric car with a home charging station has benefits compared with public charging stations.

Here’s why you need to install BMW home charging station:-

Save money

Instead of buying battery power from a third-party source every time you need to charge your BMW, it is a good idea to pay a flat fee for a residential BMW charging station and have unlimited energy from the same source that keeps your house warm and other electric appliances running. Of course, you would see a spike in electricity bill. But, you’ll save money by saving yourself from frequent trips to the public station and paying for recharging your car. Home charging stations pay for themselves in the long run.

Finding your home charger is affordable too. There are many electric vehicles charging station providers in Australia from whom you can buy and rely on them for support. There are three different types of home chargers, including level 1, level 2, and level 3. Based on the type of charger you buy, the cost will be anywhere between $300 and $2000.

Convenient

On average, it takes anywhere from four to six hours to fully charge your BMW with a level 2 charger. Let’s imagine that you need to drive 50miles to attend a meeting and your EV is running low on battery. If you have to wait the whole night, take your vehicle to the nearby charging station, recharge, and then drive. Wouldn’t that consume your productive hours? The same scenario is much more manageable if you have the home charger installed. All you need to do is, plug the car in and go to sleep. By the time you wake up, you’ll have a fully charged BMW ready for the drive.

Safe

Charging at home is much safer than public charging stations for a range of reasons, including the safety of you and your vehicle. You’ll have to wait for a long time in the public charging stations to charge your EV, and there’s no safety, especially if you are in the middle of high way.

As you see, they’re less expensive, more convenient and completely safe as long as it is installed properly.

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